US Economic Boom and Extended Debt Ceiling

2019.07.22

Looks like most economic indicators point to a booming US economy, apart from the urge on the US Federal Reserve to cut rates and a shrinking but rallying stock market. We are obviously wrong earlier in thinking the US economy would falter quickly, as the effect of stimulus such as tax cut lasts longer. Is the US government debt ceiling to be extended again? Would that surprise anyone? Combined with very likely lower rates by the Fed, would you be looking at a better time than this?

And Why not just do away with the pointless Debt Ceiling, or simply declare having lots of money? Who's to argue with that? As long as the Dollar Index holds in the forex market. At such booming time, don't the people of America deserve much more when money is a matter of printing anyway? Would you rather see the digits go into wall street fraudsters' pocket or your family savers? Remember, the national debt is on everybody's head. Talking of which, the continuous funding of it by the Chinese didn't seem to bring much benefit but tariffs from the US government instead.

On RMB Bond and Rating Agencies

2019.01.17

Looks like China has made another step towards RMB internationalization via the expansion of RMB Bond Market for both domestic and foreign issuers and investors, at least that's one of their stated purposes.

Development certainly creates opportunities, it'll be interesting to see whether the handful of Chinese Rating Agencies would be able to establish firm and dominant foothold in the market. If however, wall street dodgy huslters like Moody's control RMB Bond ratings, then you are looking at the making of prime eggs Chinese style. Wall Street taking off their Prime Egg hat? Not so fast, the US subprime crisis had already made history, and do they want to get rid of Moody's or keep it away from the RMB bond market? Otherwise, the Chinese shouldn't be happy too quickly because their bond market would be at the whim of a few wall street crooks that create bubble for a living, and this time can decide when to blow it up as they wish, and that's probably the reason of wall street's enthusiasm on it, [2019.07 - and would they have not shifted the risk to some unsuspecting investors when it blows?].

Would the Chinese let wall street hustlers control them? It won't be a surprise given that China is the only country continuously massively subsidises US national ponzi scheme apart from the occupied Japan, fooling themselves and contributing to a false mirage of US Treasuries, sovereign debt of a country that's the source of almost all modern day global hoax and financial crisis, somehow has nearly no risk and forever have a liquid market, the same agencies rating their corporate bond gave top ratings to the bunch of wall street super massively rich powerful hustlers collapsed on a bit of liquidity squeeze; some in China can't even distinguish the fiat USD from gold, calling the US currency "American Gold".

A few in China think diversification of creditors somehow mitigates credit risk. With wall street eagerly preparing for a feast, maybe China would want to issue lots of RMB Bond to the US Federal Reserve and let them hoard it, thus Chinese (and may even be foreign) RMB bond adds more diversified creditors and the US Federal Reserve diversifies its portfolio.

Profoundly Flawed US Economy

2018.12.17

It seems some in the US hate it that the direction of the US economy is heading downwards, but is it a surprise that it has come to the current state?

Since the US housing bubble bursted a decade ago, the US went through

$700bn immediate cash injection on bankrupt wall street prime eggs;

A multi-trillion Dollar quantitative easing programme hiding much more losses on those prime eggs' books;

Air brushed away the fraudulence of its undressed rating agency Moody's that is the culprit of their credit crunch, covering up the insignificance and the artificial relevance of its nonsense ratings in global economy;

At the same time spraying their implosion towards other parts of the world using the same fraudulent rating agency to shift the focus on their failure away;

Even that is not enough to pull those wall street prime eggs out of their subprime hole despite their fake financial report bragging recovery, that the new stimulus manifested in the form of 2018 tax cut actually exposed another hole in their books that they have been quietly offloading their NPL losses in billions per quarter through manipulating their tax return since their subprime crisis;

Now the effect of tax cut is waning, and the outlook of the US economy is heading downwards with fiscal deficit racked up by more than $700bn per year (remember the bailout?), and the Federal Reserve can't chuck out subprime losses renamed assets and their own Treasuries fast enough, even at $50bn per month, they have no confidence in themselves, which is not a surprise given the string of scams and scandals by the United States of America observed by the world.

The US economy was a hot balloon on the steam of a housing bubble before the subprime crisis the prime eggs of which still looms large to this day; there have not been many game-changing technological break-throughs as in previous decades apart from an ailing mobile phone repackaged 10 times the design and hardware of it all come from abroad, and some businesses rely heavily on the credibility of the US, which is a joke not only considering its numerous financial crisis but the revealation of characteristics in other pillocks of their society. The US economy has never really recovered since the crisis, the burden was partly shifted to the nation heavily in debt, partly hidden on and off wall street zombie prime eggs' cooked books; the rising fiscal deficit and recent tax cut only add up to future financial difficulties of the United States on borrowed time like a credit card junkie, that, is coupled with record high US consumer debt near $4tn and household debt at a record $12.68tn, almost a quarter more than 2012 and even higher than that before the subprime crisis, that's in addition to outstanding US leveraged loans also at trillion-dollars record high, 67% more than 2008, even with the benefit of tax cut; and, do you want to look at the greasy collateral and underlyings of multi-trillion dollar ETF market some renowned hustlers have been peddling?.

Given the lack of fundemental driving force for the US economy other than the cover-up of a subprime bubble with massive loss purchase, tax cut and already massive and still growing fiscal deficit and humongus trade deficit, the economy of the US is a mirage, and the bottom of the previous crisis is likely to be the best investors could hope for when the current decline of the US concludes (if it ever does after undressed). Did you know those wall street banks lost much more than the $700bn bailout suggested? Did you know much about Moody's and its role in previous financial crisis back then? Did you know the US economy is much less significant to the world than what they desparately claim otherwise? Did you know how the US reacts to its creditors? Were the US as much in debt as today? Were the US technologically as much undressed as today? Do you trust wall street prime eggs more today?

Warren Buffett and the Next Crisis

2018.09.02

Warren Buffett bought into apple? What do you think he bought their share for, a phone repackaged 10 times and products imitating and impersonating others, or the cash? Is he still holding that much of apple share? Even if he does after the recent obvious trillion dollar valuation hoax (or the pump of the PND), does that magically brighten up apple's productless future? Just recall what you got from Moody's laughable ratings during the 2007-8 subprime crisis when warren Buffett was their biggest shareholder. Regardless of where the broader market is heading, a repackaged decade old product with no hardware or software advantage on its last breathe like Apple that even imitates a Chinese company's software, is now actually glaring stain on the clothing of America and footnote of where innovation and technologies displayed by many American companies and some self-blowing balloons like harvard have actually come from.

As of 2018.09, some are looking at 2007-08 US subprime crisis again and wonder where the next crash would come from, it looks very likely it'll come from something related to Warren Buffett, again, as his track record shows a pattern from the 1970s-80s start buying into some media companies; to 1990 the Salomon Brothers scandal (junk bond, surprised? He was major shareholder since 1987, but later always emphasise being chair since 1991 to cover his track on a series of credit fraud scandals); then the 2007-08 subprime crisis (again, credit crunch) with Warren Buffett the biggest shareholder of Moody's; now major shareholder of Apple the biggest balloon ever with no future, repackaged for the 10th time, Aa1 rated, let's see where Buffett is after Apple has no cash. He's orchestrated that many scams unscathed, what's different this time? That may be, but did you know who he really is? Did the American general public take interest in who's behind those scandals? Did the world know Warren Buffett was behind the scene at the centre of all those scams that eventually caused those previous financial crisis? Can he erase all records and evidence in the public and official domain now? Does he think those economically disadvantaged in America that gullible and forever?

Diminishing Chinese Financials and Tariff War

2018-07-06

Chinese state owned banks have increased deposit rate by 50% and central bank lowering capital reserve ratio requirement lately indicating obviously not new stimulus but actual lack of liquidity in the banking system, with potential inflood of foreign competitors for state owned banks and fund managers, cost of borrowing for other industries is likely to decrease whilst domestic funds would find it difficult to retain clients, the domestic financials are set to be the most apparent losers, those have Chinese suppliers or competitors in other industries may encounter squeezed profit margin with or without tariff, but may want to assess options stake-ownership limits are reduced or removed.

The opening up of Chinese banking system would actually be an opportunity for the Chinese to put money elsewhere, but all might want to avoid HK dollar (the very existence of which, and possibly the significance of Hong Kong itself, now seems somewhat pointless especially when China looking at RMB internationalization). Was the recently introduced pointless $100bn takeover threshold on financial firms welcomed by the worried domestic bonkers? Some would obviously find it ironic that Chinese financials are the first on the plate for their masters' feast, we say bon appétit, they aren't any good, to their customers, to the world economic stability, or even to the financial health of themselves.

Do the counterfeit deserve tariffs? Absolutely so, whatever the sum. They have always been living on others' intellectual properties, the money would've gone to some grafters' pockets anyway if not back to where it was limitlessly printed.

Take Jack Ma's NYSE listed fake hub Alibaba. Jack Ma the village Ponzi clown struggling to appear intelligent waiting to explode, citing his power (BlackRock, his biggest institutional shareholder with others including yahoo, sounds familiar?) openly admitting on his way robbing our intellectual property, the same way those southern china counterfeit to the world, all for limelight, tech stalking and his owners' agenda. Mass retail store? Is it a new idea? Do you believe in Walmarts' future in the already saturated Chinese retail market then? Do you believe in the prospect of the US or China in a trade war, look at the growth and financial indicators including Chinese domestic stock market, is jack ma telling you his supposed profit not coming from China? Are you kidding yourself or you are just plainly not confident in the US economy in the short and long term. If you believe in alibaba the fake hub which claims importance to Chinese economy, then its profitability is an indicator of the outcome of the on-going trade war obviously, and its projected earnings would be the future economic strength of China relative to the US. That's unless the village ponzi is keeping up appearances and actually on the verge of explosion or need more money to pay back his recent $7bn new debt.

Mind you, Alibaba claimed RMB 120k (roughly $18k) per head customer spending in 2016 while average pre-tax income of Beijing in 2016 was $14k (nation-wide non-farm average $10k), in a country with 49.7% farming and another 19.98% non-urban population making even less. Jack Ma also claimed an artificial shopping festival saw a $25bn spending spree on his fake-hub Alibaba in one day in November 2017, while e-commerce spending of the entire US on Black Friday 2016 was just about $5bn.

The many empty shell companies in much publicised Jack Ma's publicity stunt acquisitions for the very likely purpose of book-cooking bear the same characteristics as Jack Ma and his (which itself used pumped-up revaluation of a tiny medical equipment company he acquired with investors' money as main part of its asset, how laughable), very thick skin, proven by records showing a firm-wide-pandemic of overstating capital by 5000% - 10000% or even much more (yes, 5000% -10000%), what for? To deceive the financial market and clueless so-called partners. Jack Ma even has a name for his ponzi scheme:空手道(Hustling for money out of nothing), and apparently very proud of himself, even bragging publicly how he conned money out of the US capital markets. Prime eggs with shanghai-zhejiang of china characteristics.

Are American tech companies any better? Just look at Apple's hired crowd on show for a mobile phone repackaged numerous times.

Treasuries

2018-02-18

Watch out for the could-be new (and may even be the old) subprime that is BlackRock's bond ETFs and non-major index-tracking stock ETFs that may be open to manipulation on both collateral and underlyings (You don't think they'd dare? Do you know the composition of the collateral of their ETFs?). And, at $20bn a pot (monthly target), it'll take many years to completely write off the subprime loss making up a signifcant percentage (around 40%) of the Federal Reserve's multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet.

As of 2018-02, has wall street just flambouyantly burst again. Are they blaming anyone or the tax reform for their concealed prime eggs from the previous crisis, and spray their failure towards the world again? How much would investors trust Moody's ratings on corporate debt of some? Evidence on what they did before, during and after the previous crisis suggest otherwise.

Now would you still subsidise the treasuries when things take a down turn? Artificial credibility of US sovereign debt and currency is apparently much more important than fundamentals.

On Growth

2018-01-27

Since growth and low inflation is the main tune now according to the masters of the universe goldman sachs, despite wall street's recent misfortune in proprietary trading. That, coupled with global growth and the rising yields in US treasury securities, deserves a closer look by the world.

As part of the growth widely recognised, the Chinese state-owned enterprises' profitability has risen substantially in the region of 20% as announced. Some in Wall Street and the City of London according to themselves, apparently feeling buoyant may have deliberately taken in significant amount of risk including the over-capacitsed portion of the suppy-side structural reform of the Chinese state owned enterprises from the repackaged NPLs of the Chinese banking system, despite repeated warning of doubts, maybe they just like specfic types of eggs if they did. we can only speculate how much they have profitted, goldman?

Their appetite and bullish view on Chinese equities seem to suggest confidence in the partly restructured Chinese state-owned enterprises including the healthier and more profitable state-owned banks as stated.

On Chinese Financials

2017-11-10

With the lifting of the limits on foreign-held stakes in Chinese financial institutions (almost all state-owned) given requirement of joint ventures, it seems likely there could be medium term opportunities for the cash-strapped holding the leash; the long-term prospect of those Chnese institutions looks very grim however (if they still exist by then), especially if confirmed by mid-term volatility. Interested? Not in finance? Aren't there opportunities in all industries given the characteristics of the leashed, the question is cost of entry, are you feeling the pinch already?
The next batch of prime eggs may likely be from the Chinese financial system with the same smelly peddlers Goldman Sachs teamed up with self-slapping rating agencies, and there is considerable possibility that the middle kingdom (if by that time still considered so) may be the next Greece, and certainly not conforming to the world-observed standard. Regardless of what is on the plate, or which other great prime egg seed may follow (and it could be anyone), it remains a possibility that the leashed may bite after enriching themselves even more and in need of shifting responsibility again when the country (with plenty of military means dangling around) is in Greece-like dire situation, past behaviour of those has proven that anyone could be on the receiving end, whether connected to them or not.

The One-Belt One-Road Great Capital Move

2017-09-02

With average pretax income of barely over $14k for the country's top earning capital Beijing in 2016, and nation-wide non-farm average earning less than $10k, considering the demographic fact of 49.7% farming and another 19.98% non-urban population making even much less, coupled with the over-stretching property boom and 1st generation automobile ownership in most average households, the majority of which is financed through mortgages and car-loans, it is only logical to take a closer look at the general consensus of China being an over-saving country; in a fast approaching artificial intelligence dominated world, it is obvious that the effectiveness for the economic model of cheap-labour and property boom are rapidly deminishing.

The cost-benefit ratio is proven increasingly unattractive for many international investors, even in regions where commupt officials evidently take orders from international career hustlers, especially when the commupt party is already asking for core technology in exchange for access to an over-burdened general population customer base, although this may not be the case if your client base is HNW individuals.

For the opportunists, the one-belt one-road great capital move overseas would seem a better choice considering the definite need of such projects for laundering and the unlikelihood of change of situation domestically given the well-known characteristics of the Chinese.